Canada-US Tariff War Widens Fast: Average tariff rate hits 52%+ on auto sector by September 18

78%

probability · 78% confidence · 8 days

Trump administration announced 50% tariffs and import bans on Canadian goods. Existing forecast (ID:d82a6276) expects 10%+ additional increase by Sept 15; current alert signals 50% already announced. Canadian Finance Minister Carney pivoted away from US. Base rate for trade_war_escalation is 10%; however, Trump has already executed the 50% threat. The threshold of 52%+ on auto sector (narrower measure than overall tariff) is highly probable given auto manufacturing is prime target. Bombardier shares down on this signal.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.