Strait Chokepoint Chokes: Red Sea/Hormuz shipping delays exceed 14 days for 30%+ of traffic by May 10

92%

probability · 71% confidence · 41 days

Manually corrected: event occurred but the cron failed to record the outcome. Backfilled 2026-05-11.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.