Strait Chokepoint Chokes: Red Sea/Hormuz shipping delays exceed 14 days for 30%+ of traffic by May 10

88%

probability · 71% confidence · 41 days

Iran Strait closure threat now critical alert (not just elevated). Red Sea/Hormuz delays already high; closure or near-closure will force 30%+ of traffic >14 days. Raising from 82% to reflect imminent threat signals.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.