Ebola Death Count Doubles: DRC cumulative fatalities exceed 4,000 by September 5

91%

probability · 96% confidence · 21 days

Existing forecast targets 4,000 fatalities by Sept 5. Given confirmed exponential growth and current count at 2,500+, this threshold is nearly certain to be exceeded within 13 days. Base case now supports 91% vs. original 95% due to slight lag in reporting, but the trend is unmistakable.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.