Austria Bans Teen Social Media: Under-14 ban law passes parliament by May 1

73%

probability · 73% confidence · 34 days

Active alert: Austria plans to ban social media for under-14s. This is legislative momentum, not speculative. Meta regulatory reckoning ($350M+ penalties already in motion), UK child safety scandals, and Austria's historical precedent with digital regulation (GDPR driver) suggest high legislative velocity. Base rate for policy_change is 15% (30 days); Austria's specific alert combined with Meta's visible penalties and parliamentary pressure patterns support 73%. European regulatory environment is currently pro-restriction. Confidence reflects active legislative signal rather than probabilistic surprise.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.