Trade Collapse Worsens: WTO confirms global trade disruption worst in 80+ years within 7 days

58%

probability · 58% confidence · 7 days

Signal: WTO reports world experiencing worst trade disruption in 80 years. Iran war is disrupting energy flows; Strait of Hormuz tensions threatening 21% of global oil transit; regional backlash to US presence destabilizing logistics hubs (Iraq, Lebanon). Base rate for trade_war_escalation (30 days) is 10%, but this is a structural supply-chain shock, not tariff policy. WTO formal statement expected within days as members convene to assess Strait security. Probability moderate (58%) because WTO language tends toward caution; outcome depends on whether they formally issue a new trade disruption assessment exceeding prior 80-year comparisons. [Web Search Context] I'll search for current inf…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.