Ocean Heatwave Worsens: Global sea surface temperature breaks 2024 record by July 20

84%

probability · 67% confidence · 19 days

Ocean Heatwave Worsens: France records 2,025 excess deaths during June heatwave; European ocean temps tracking above 2024 baseline per climate models. Alert confirms sustained heat across Mediterranean and Atlantic-facing coasts. Base rate (25% temperature_record over 30 days) anchors at lower bound, but accumulated evidence from multiple European regions + confirmed excess mortality + active wildfire signals elevates probability of record-breaking sea surface temperature by July 20.

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