Japan Yen Intervention Fails: JPY weakens past 160 per USD within 21 days

54%

probability · 54% confidence · 21 days

Tokyo's announced joint currency intervention with the US signals concern about rapid yen depreciation amid economic turbulence and deflationary pressure. Historical intervention success rates show 40-50% fail to sustain desired levels within 3 weeks when underlying economic fundamentals remain weak. Japan's economic signals (earthquake disruption, stimulus uncertainty) and Trump administration's variable FX policies reduce intervention efficacy. Base rate for currency crisis moves (2%) is low, but this is a targeted policy test.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.