Ebola Keeps Spreading: DRC outbreak reaches 7,800+ cumulative cases by October 12

95%

probability · 81% confidence · 16 days

Health reports confirm Ebola cases now exceed 8,000 ('Ebola cases surpass 8,000 as DRC struggles to control outbreak'). Forecast expires Oct 12 and requires 7,800+. Case counts are tracking above threshold. Revised up from 99% to 95% (slightly conservative to account for reporting lag and verification delays in DRC health system).

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.