Suez Canal Blockade Spreads: Iranian-backed forces attack 2+ major commercial vessels within 30 days

71%

probability · 81% confidence · 30 days

Suez Canal Blockade Spreads (Iranian-backed forces attack 2+ major vessels within 30 days): Houthi claims remain consistent, but actual vessel strike frequency has moderated relative to threat statements. Intelligence signals show ongoing Red Sea drone activity but no confirmed multi-vessel simultaneous attacks in past 72h. Reduce from 88% (overconfident) to 71% — maintains elevated probability but reflects empirical gap between rhetoric and kinetic capability.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.