Tokyo Quake Aftershocks Expected: Japan records 5.5+ magnitude tremor within 14 days

72%

probability · 62% confidence · 14 days

6.1 magnitude earthquake recorded in Tokyo region within forecast window. Aftershock probability remains elevated. Base rate for 5.5+ in next 14 days post-6.1 mainshock is ~68–72%. Confidence in this outcome is stable; no directional change needed.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.