AI Arms Race Spirals: China-Russia joint statement on AI weapons development issued within 30 days

48%

probability · 62% confidence · 30 days

No new evidence of China-Russia joint AI weapons statement. Peace deal momentum may reduce China's incentive to escalate publicly. Base rate for tech_merger/policy (90 days) is 12–25%, but this is narrowly scoped. Lowering from 62% to 48% — signal lag suggests this isn't imminent.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.