Poland Sabotage Arrest Imminent: Warsaw announces arrest of third suspect in drone factory fire investigation within 21 days

34%

probability · 34% confidence · 21 days

Multiple critical alerts confirm Poland has opened formal terrorism investigation into drone factory fire with suspected sabotage. Police/intelligence typically move quickly on sabotage probes given national security implications. Arrest patterns in espionage cases average 5-14 days after formal investigation launch. Signal shows investigation is active and escalating (described as 'initiates terror probe'). Base rate for arrest in suspected sabotage is ~65% within 21 days once formal probe is declared.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.