Grain Prices Hit Record: FAO Food Price Index surges 12%+ by September 1 amid Red Sea blockade

74%

probability · 74% confidence · 18 days

Russian blockade threatens global grain supplies from Ukrainian ports; Ukraine grain export terminals secured in Black Sea port attack. Houthi maritime attacks intensify with vessels burning in Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb strait. Two existing forecasts predict Houthi blockade tightens Red Sea and shipping premiums spike. Base rate for food price spike during supply disruption ≈ 10–12% within 30 days. Global dependency on Ukrainian grain (15% of world supply) creates high multiplier effect. Current signals show active blockade + Houthi attacks + disrupted export terminals = high probability of sustained grain price inflation.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.