Colombia Violence Peaks: Second major bombing attack kills 10+ civilians within 21 days

99%

probability · 42% confidence · 21 days

Colombia coal mine explosion kills 9 workers (elevated alert + news headline confirmed). Original 99% on 'second major bombing' forecast was explicitly tied to cartel violence trajectory. Coal mine blast represents workplace disaster, not cartel bombing attack. This forecast remains on track for 21-day window but recent incident does not directly resolve it. Maintaining 99% as second attack probability remains elevated given cartel capacity. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.