Red Sea Shipping Avoidance Spreads: At least 4 major container lines bypass Suez Canal within 30 days

55%

probability · 71% confidence · 30 days

Red Sea Shipping Avoidance Spreads: While escalation signals persist (Houthis, Hormuz threats), actual container line diversions have been slower than initially modeled. No new confirmed diversions in last 48h despite critical alerts. Lowering from 71% to 55% — shipping rerouting requires weeks of planning, not days.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.