Measles Surge Hits Africa: Nigeria, Uganda confirm outbreaks within 21 days

81%

probability · 73% confidence · 21 days

Measles surge in US now documented across dozens of states + Bangladesh outbreak with 100+ pediatric deaths in one month. Cross-border import risk + vaccination gaps in African networks elevate Nigeria/Uganda outbreak confirmation likelihood. Upgrading from 73% to 81%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.