Ceasefire Talks Stall: US-Iran negotiations fail to produce agreement by May 20

99%

probability · 68% confidence · 55 days

RESOLVED: Alerts show US-Iran exchange of strikes (Iran launched ballistic missiles at Gulf allies, US shot down Iranian drones). No ceasefire agreement produced. Forecast outcome confirmed: negotiations failed by May 20 deadline.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.