Ceasefire Talks Stall: US-Iran negotiations fail to produce agreement by May 20

99%

probability · 68% confidence · 55 days

Forecast 'Ceasefire Talks Stall: US-Iran negotiations fail to produce agreement by May 20' was 99% and still on track. New signal: Iran submits 14-point ceasefire proposal BUT Trump administration merely 'under review' — no progress toward agreement. Lebanon ceasefire already collapsed (41 killed in 24h). US announcing Hormuz mission despite Iran ceasefire warnings. Pattern of escalation (drone strikes, maritime attacks) incompatible with negotiated resolution by May 20. No change to probability — remains 99%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.