Trump Shifts Taiwan Policy: US formally announces military support reduction or policy reversal within 30 days of Beijing summit

98%

probability · 28% confidence · 30 days

Trump Shifts Taiwan Policy: Xi's North Korea visit signals Beijing's pivot on regional alignment [critical]. Trump's conditioning of Israel support on Iran halt demonstrates quid-pro-quo negotiation style. Taiwan policy reversal within 30 days is now extremely likely (military support reduction or de facto recognition shift). Spiked from 96% to 98%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.