Mexico Crisis Worsens: Missing persons tally climbs to 140,000+ under Sheinbaum by May 20

71%

probability · 68% confidence · 35 days

Mexico missing persons crisis fresh alert: '133,000 Under Sheinbaum.' Previous forecast required 140,000+ by May 20. Current baseline now at 133k; trajectory suggests 140k is achievable but not certain given Sheinbaum's crime initiatives showing early mixed signals. Slight upward adjustment from 68% to 71% (+3 points) based on fresh confirmation of crisis scale. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-11-05): Mexico's registry showed about 132,000 people missing, close to the 140,000 mark.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.