Thailand Gun Laws Tighten Fast: Bangkok announces new firearm licensing or purchase restrictions within 21 days after school shooting

77%

probability · 77% confidence · 21 days

Deadliest school shooting in Thailand's recent history (8+ killed) with international attention. Post-mass-shooting policy windows are typically 14-21 days before political momentum dissipates. Thailand's PM explicitly vowed stricter gun laws in immediate aftermath. Historical precedent (NZ Christchurch 2019, Australia Port Arthur 1996) shows legislative response within 14-30 days when executive commitment is stated. Base rate for policy_change (30 days) is 15%; shooting-driven gun policy is 40-50% empirically.

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