Poland Arms Threat Surfaces: Warsaw follows through; Ukraine military aid suspended or reduced by 25%+ within 30 days

71%

probability · 52% confidence · 30 days

Poland arms threat now explicitly confirmed in multiple alerts ('Poland Threatens to Cut Arms Aid to Ukraine Over WWII Border Dispute'). Warsaw is actively pursuing this leverage point. Existing 62% was conservative; evidence now supports mid-70s range for follow-through within 30 days.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.