Kenyan Tea Exports Collapse: Port blockade persists beyond 21 days, stranding 40%+ of weekly shipments

71%

probability · 71% confidence · 21 days

Iran war disruption has trapped Nairobi tea exports in port. Kenya's tea sector is the nation's largest export earner (~$1.6B annually). Port congestion from regional logistics breakdown, combined with fuel crisis signals from Tehran affecting shipping routes, suggests sustained supply chain damage. Base rate for trade disruption escalation is 10%; elevated signal strength from multiple shipping choke-points (Red Sea, Hormuz) supports above-base probability.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.