Ethiopia Civil War Spreads: Tigray forces capture second major city or military installation within 21 days

88%

probability · 55% confidence · 21 days

Ethiopia Civil War Spreads forecast was at 78%; new Mekelle seizure and Eritrea diplomatic rupture evidence warrants upgrade. Government forces now hold capital; TPLF withdrawal confirms military collapse rather than stalemate. Second major city capture now more likely within 21 days given momentum.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.