Lebanon Displacement Surges: Refugee/displaced population exceeds 1.5 million by June 1

99%

probability · 58% confidence · 69 days

Lebanese displacement already spiking due to Israeli strikes and Hezbollah conflict escalation. Refugee/displaced population approaching 1.5M threshold imminently. Hold 99%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.