Lebanon Displacement Surges: Refugee/displaced population exceeds 1.5 million by June 1

99%

probability · 58% confidence · 69 days

Lebanon ceasefire collapsed; Israeli airstrikes intensifying (41 killed in 24 hours per critical alert). Hospitals overwhelmed. Displacement signals from Lebanon now directly quantified at extreme scale. June 1 deadline allows further escalation window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.