Pharma Supply Chain Fractures: India pharmaceutical exports drop 20%+ amid Iran war disruption by May 20

92%

probability · 72% confidence · 20 days

Forecast was 88% for India pharma exports dropping 20%+ amid Iran war disruption by May 20. Current alert explicitly states Airline profits plummet as US fuel costs nearly double; India pharmaceutical supply chain fragile. Deadline passed but cargo data lags; spiking to 92% based on fuel cost confirmation. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-10-15): India's pharmaceutical exports grew 6.8% year-on-year to $8.10 billion in April–June 2026 (Q1 FY27). FY26 exports rose 2.16% to $31.12 billion. No 20%+ drop was reported.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.