Cartel Violence Spreads: Mexico's missing persons tally climbs to 145,000+ by June 15

68%

probability · 68% confidence · 44 days

Active forecast #51 predicts Mexico missing persons hits 140,000+ by May 20 at 71%. Current signal reports Mexico crisis worsening under Sheinbaum. Cartel violence is accelerating — CIA officers killed in Mexico operation per alerts. Rate of new disappearances (~20-40/day) suggests crossing 140k threshold achievable; extension to 145k+ by mid-June is modest increment. Strong evidence base from security alerts. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-10-30): Mexico's official missing-persons registry (RNPDNO) showed about 135,043 people missing and not located in July 2026, after the registry was reclassified in early 2026. That is below 145,000, and no source found shows the figure reaching …

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