Cartel Violence Spreads: Mexico's missing persons tally climbs to 145,000+ by June 15

68%

probability · 68% confidence · 44 days

Active forecast #51 predicts Mexico missing persons hits 140,000+ by May 20 at 71%. Current signal reports Mexico crisis worsening under Sheinbaum. Cartel violence is accelerating — CIA officers killed in Mexico operation per alerts. Rate of new disappearances (~20-40/day) suggests crossing 140k threshold achievable; extension to 145k+ by mid-June is modest increment. Strong evidence base from security alerts.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.