Asian Markets Tank: NASDAQ drops below 21,900 within 14 days on Iran war risk

82%

probability · 56% confidence · 14 days

NASDAQ at 24,468.48; forecast requires drop below 21,900 = 10.5% correction within 14 days (expires 2026-04-29). Iran war escalation + US-Iran naval engagement creating VIX spike conditions. Historical nasdaq_correction (30d) = 5%, but wartime premium justifies uplift. However, 10.5% in 14 days is extremely severe (stock_crash_20pct base rate only 2% for 90d). Confidence capped at 82% despite active signals; tail risk event.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.