Refinery Toxic Spike: Moscow refinery drone strike triggers environmental/health emergency declaration within 14 days

76%

probability · 68% confidence · 14 days

Manually corrected: event occurred but the cron failed to record the outcome. Backfilled 2026-05-11.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.