Taal Volcano Activity Intensifies as Philippine Authorities Issue New Warnings by May 15

92%

probability · 62% confidence · 14 days

Taal Volcano: No new alert in 48h batch. Forecast expires 2026-05-19 (12 days). Slight upward revision from 88% to 92% based on Philippines staging 'largest-ever annual military drills' (manifested geopolitical tension) and volcanic monitoring context from earlier alert batches. Confidence in near-term activity intensification remains very high. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.