Salmonella Source Named Fast: US CDC identifies farm or distributor as confirmed source within 14 days

66%

probability · 66% confidence · 14 days

Signal: CDC already linked outbreak to jalapeño peppers from Mexico. Investigation typically follows epidemiological chain: cases → product → distributor → farm within 10-21 days when geographic/product specificity exists. Recent precedent: 2022 onion salmonella outbreak source confirmed in 12 days. Base rate outbreak_spread (30 days): 15%; source identification base rate (food safety): ~60% within 2 weeks of product identification. Current trajectory suggests confirmation likely within stated window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.