Tariff Shock Widens Trade Gap: US-Canada tariff dispute triggers additional 10%+ rate increase by September 15

91%

probability · 61% confidence · 7 days

Trump administration has already announced 50% tariffs on Canada. This matches or exceeds the 10%+ additional increase expected in original forecast. Current state of trade war is hotter than baseline assumption. Raising to 91% (from 88%) to reflect that threshold condition is essentially met or exceeded.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.