Germany's Espionage Sweep Deepens: Berlin arrests 3+ additional suspects linked to Iran/China plots within 30 days

82%

probability · 68% confidence · 30 days

Germany's Espionage Sweep: Berlin arson attacks + suspected infrastructure sabotage + Iran/China plots in German signals suggest coordinated intelligence campaign. Additional arrests and espionage charges highly probable. Spiked from 76% to 82%. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-11-05): No German arrests of three or more Iran- or China-linked espionage suspects between 23 May and 22 June 2026 were reported; the only recent case found was a two-person China spying arrest in Munich in May.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.