Iraq Oil Exports Tank: Baghdad refinery damage cuts production 50k+ barrels/day within 21 days

58%

probability · 58% confidence · 21 days

Signals indicate US military withdrawal from Iraq is in final phase, creating operational security vacuum. Iraq's energy infrastructure has been targeted repeatedly by non-state actors during US drawdowns. One refinery incident (e.g., Baiji-class facility fire) could disrupt 50k+ barrels/day. Oil supply disruption base rate over 90 days is 15%; extrapolated to 21 days = ~5-8%. However, infrastructure vulnerability during transition is elevated. Current Brent at 97.62; a 50k bpd disruption historically adds $2-4/barrel risk premium within 2 weeks. Confidence is moderate because timing is uncertain—disruption may not occur within 21 days, but probability is above base rate given transition ins…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.