Senegal Tightens LGBTQ+ Law: Constitutional court or parliament upholds doubling of same-sex penalties by May 30

58%

probability · 58% confidence · 30 days

Alert confirms Senegal has signed law doubling penalty for same-sex relations to 10 years. This represents significant policy shift in West African legal landscape. Signals suggest this reflects broader political movement (not isolated incident). Regional context: conservative governance coalitions strengthening across Sahel. Constitutional challenges expected but unlikely to overturn within 30 days — judicial review timelines in Francophone Africa typically 60-90 days. Forecast focuses on legal reinforcement/confirmation by May 30.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.