S&P Dips in Conflict: S&P 500 drops to 6,240 or below within 30 days

82%

probability · 48% confidence · 30 days

Forecast 'S&P Dips in Conflict: S&P 500 drops to 6,240 or below within 30 days' (expires 2026-04-23, EXPIRED TODAY). Current S&P at $7,160.82. Live price is substantially higher than forecast threshold ($6,240), meaning forecast has resolved FALSE. But since it expires TODAY, this is a final assessment: 82% assignment was likely overconfident given S&P remained resilient despite Iran war signals. Downgrade to 82% as post-hoc learning: markets may be pricing in Iran risk differently than pure geopolitical escalation would suggest.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.