Pakistan-Afghanistan Escalation Spirals: Second cross-border military strike within 14 days

99%

probability · 68% confidence · 14 days

Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation forecast (expires June 1) now has dual confirmation: alerts report 36+ civilian deaths from Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan; news confirms 'Pakistani airstrikes kill 36 civilians in Afghanistan and wound 160, officials say.' Original probability 99% was correct — second cross-border strike is underway or imminent. No change.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.