Strait Chaos Looms: Somali piracy incidents spike to 8+ confirmed attacks by September 15

68%

probability · 61% confidence · 15 days

Signals confirm Iranian drone already damaged Kuwait building; Hormuz tanker strike killed 2. Somali piracy + Hormuz strait incidents are overlapping risk vectors. Updating from 61% to reflect confirmed Hormuz attack activity.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.