Japanese Seismic Aftershock: Major tremor hits Japan-adjacent zone within 30 days

62%

probability · 56% confidence · 30 days

Critical alert: 'Major earthquake and tsunami warning strike northern Japan' just issued. Japan Meteorological Agency elevated alert status. Seismic pattern aligns with Kuril Trench buildup. Probability of magnitude 5.0+ within 30 days now substantially higher. Raised from 56% to 62% due to official warning and confirmed alert status. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-11-05): After the April 20 M7.5 quake off northeastern Japan, a M6.7 quake struck off Ofunato, Iwate on May 15, 2026 and an mb 6.0 quake hit off Kagoshima on May 20.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.