Venezuela Humanitarian Funding Dries Up: Major donor withdraws pledges or suspends operations within 21 days

94%

probability · 68% confidence · 21 days

Venezuela earthquake now confirmed with 3,500+ deaths. Humanitarian funding withdrawal is nearly certain. Existing forecast 91%; upgraded to 94% because: (1) disaster magnitude exceeded expectations (3,500 vs baseline estimates), (2) Venezuela's existing isolation limits new aid, (3) donors will immediately reassess commitments. Spiked due to confirmed catastrophe signal.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.