Tokyo Airport Reopens Delayed: Runway closure extends beyond 48 hours due to quake damage assessment

62%

probability · 62% confidence · 14 days

Tokyo earthquake (5.7 magnitude) occurred during tropical storm season, creating compound disruption risk. Signals report flight disruptions already in progress. Infrastructure damage assessment typically requires 3-7 days for major hubs. Base rate for trade_war_escalation is 10%, but this is infrastructure-specific — closer to 15% base rate for economic disruption from natural disasters. Recovery depends on secondary damage confirmation and typhoon season overlap.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.