Nigeria Unrest Deepens: Lagos protests spread to 3+ cities; death toll exceeds 10 within 30 days

71%

probability · 62% confidence · 30 days

Nigeria police detention deaths signal spike: 37+ suspected illegal miners died in custody (mass protest trigger confirmed). Lagos protests already underway. Escalation to 3+ cities within 30 days is now more likely given scale of custody deaths and government accountability pressure. Upgrade from 68% to 71% as base rate for mass_protest (30 days) = 20% and police violence typically triggers secondary wave of urban unrest.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.