Silicon Valley Scrambles: US Congress advances AI export restrictions targeting China within 14 days

68%

probability · 62% confidence · 14 days

Original forecast 'Silicon Valley Scrambles: US Congress advances AI export restrictions targeting China within 14 days' at 62% prob, expires June 25 (EXPIRED). Current signals show Trump hardline tech posture, China missile tests, bipartisan Senate momentum. If extending forecast to July 20 window, probability rises to 68% based on new Geopolitical-Economic signals. No spike (different timeframe). Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-11-05): After House committees advanced AI chip export bills earlier in 2026, the AI Overwatch Act, MATCH Act and Chip Security Act were added to the defense bill's manager's amendment in mid-July 2026.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.