Oil Stays Tight: Brent remains in $98-102 band for 60+ days

99%

probability · 71% confidence · 60 days

Forecast 'Oil Stays Tight: Brent remains in $98-102 band for 60+ days' was 92%, expires May 25. Current Brent: $107.27 — ABOVE the $98-102 band. This forecast is now FAILING. US naval escorts in Hormuz, Iran ceasefire warnings, and ongoing drone strikes on Russian/Iranian assets all support sustained high oil prices ($105+), which contradicts the $98-102 containment band. Probability DOWNGRADED from 92% to 22% — the band has been breached and geopolitical conditions support sustained $105+ pricing through May 25.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.