Shipping Bottleneck Deepens: Average Red Sea transit delay exceeds 21 days for 40%+ of commercial traffic by May 10

88%

probability · 73% confidence · 41 days

Forecast 'Shipping Bottleneck Deepens: Average Red Sea transit delay exceeds 21 days for 40%+ of commercial traffic by May 10' (expires 2026-05-10). No new Red Sea shipping signals in this batch, but Iran Strait of Hormuz escalation is a parallel chokepoint creating secondary bottlenecks. Original 99% was likely overconfident on Red Sea specifically; downgrade to 88% as new signal focus is on Hormuz, not Red Sea.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.