Shipping Bottleneck Deepens: Average Red Sea transit delay exceeds 21 days for 40%+ of commercial traffic by May 10

91%

probability · 73% confidence · 41 days

Red Sea shipping bottleneck deepens with ongoing Houthi activity and geopolitical tension. Forecast requires 'Average Red Sea transit delay exceeds 21 days for 40%+ of commercial traffic by May 10' (expires May 10 — 4 days from signal date). Multiple shipping reports document 21-day+ delays as baseline; current escalation with Iran war makes 40%+ threshold very likely. Probability increase reflects imminent resolution date. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.