Cyclospora Outbreak Expands: US reports 50+ new cases by August 19

71%

probability · 58% confidence · 14 days

Cyclospora outbreak in US remains active with two deaths confirmed (Al Jazeera). Previous forecast (58%) expires August 19. New data shows case growth continuing and CDC chief Erica Schwartz recently confirmed amid agency turmoil, suggesting heightened visibility and reporting. Raising probability to 71% to reflect demonstrated transmission momentum and ongoing investigation activity.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.