Grain Markets Tighten: Global wheat prices surge 12%+ amid fertilizer shortage by May 10

81%

probability · 58% confidence · 24 days

Grain tightness signal amplified by Colombia's 7.1M IDP crisis (disrupts regional agriculture exports), Iran war fertilizer disruption, and Hormuz shipping bottleneck at 88% probability. Existing wheat forecast at 75% for 12%+ surge; new supply-side shocks justify 81% for grain price acceleration by May 10. Manually marked correct: event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.