Grain Markets Tighten: Global wheat prices surge 12%+ amid fertilizer shortage by May 10

75%

probability · 58% confidence · 24 days

Updated: Fertilizer industry formal warning issued about Iran war threatening billions of meals globally. Wheat prices already near highs; additional upward pressure from supply-side shock now more acute. Base rate grain_market_tightness = 68% → 75% given explicit industry alert and confirmed supply chain disruption signals.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.