Shipping Premiums Spike Again: Maritime insurance rates for Hormuz transit rise 25%+ within 14 days

91%

probability · 81% confidence · 14 days

Iran has explicitly threatened Strait of Hormuz closure with compensation demands. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping continue. Maritime insurers are responding to these explicit state and proxy threats with premium hikes. Original 89% probability is justified; evidence suggests 91% more appropriate given explicit Iranian closure threat now on table.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.