Mexico Recession Looms: Mexican peso weakens past 20 per USD amid remittance collapse within 45 days

62%

probability · 51% confidence · 45 days

Mexico Recession Looms forecast at 51% (expires May 14). New signal: Ecuador hikes tariffs to 100% in feud with Colombia — regional trade wars escalating. Trump cuts international development aid by unprecedented margin, reducing remittances and demand. Peso already under pressure from Middle East instability. Trade collapse signals and USAID cuts sharpen probability of 20+ per USD breach by May 14. Raised to 62%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.