Dengue Explodes in Yemen: Health ministry confirms 500+ cases across multiple governorates by August 15

81%

probability · 72% confidence · 21 days

Yemen dengue outbreak escalating — health workers race to halt latest outbreak of deadly dengue. New signal strength supports forecast. Base rate for outbreak spread (30 days) is 15%, but Yemen's health system collapse, ongoing conflict limiting response capacity, and active reporting of surge dynamics push probability higher. Maintaining elevated confidence.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.