Afghan Security Unravels: Mass shooting frequency increases to 2+ incidents per week by May 1

32%

probability · 32% confidence · 21 days

Critical alert: Kabul mass shooting kills four at public gathering (elevated signal). Afghanistan Security Collapse flagged as severe. Large displacement populations (8.9M critical alert) and lack of institutional capacity suggest heightened terrorist/militant activity. Base rate for terrorism (30 days) is 8%; Afghan context shows structural collapse enabling repeated attacks. Regional instability from Iran war spillover compounds pressure. Confidence moderated by difficulty isolating causality between conflict and domestic security.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.